The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, bringing the year-to-date increase to 3.3% and the 12-month rate to 4.4%, according to the INE. Nine of the 13 divisions recorded gains, led by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation, sports and culture, while information and communication posted a slight decline that helped temper the headline figure.
What is the CPI and how does it relate to inflation? The CPI is an index from the INE that tracks average price changes for a basket of goods and services consumed by households. When the CPI rises, that’s inflation: the 4.4% “over 12 months” reflects the year-over-year change (September 2024 vs. September 2025).
What drove the print
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +0.8% and 0.185 incidence points. Within the division, vegetables, legumes and tubers rose 3.7% and bread, cereals, flours and pasta 1.3%. Among individual items, tomatoes (+19.0%; +0.053 pp) and bread (+1.7%; +0.036 pp) stood out.
- Recreation, sports and culture: +1.3% (+0.059 pp), driven by travel packages (+6.4%) and toys (+5.1%). In particular, international travel packages increased 8.5%.
- Restaurants and accommodation: +0.7% month over month; within items, food purchased at restaurants, cafés and similar rose 0.8% (+0.044 pp).
What moderated the CPI
- Information and communication: -0.2% (-0.014 pp), reflecting declines in subscriptions to audiovisual content (-1.8%) and audiovisual equipment (-1.5%).
- In transport, the monthly balance was 0.0%, with decreases in international airfares (-9.4%; -0.049 pp) and increases in intercity bus (+12.8%; +0.033 pp).
- The energy component registered -0.2% month over month.
Core inflation: excluding volatiles also rose 0.4%
The core measures —CPI excluding volatile items and CPI excluding food and energy— posted a 0.4% monthly increase, indicating underlying pressures remained aligned with the headline index.
Items with the largest impact in September
- Tomatoes: +19.0% (+0.053 pp).
- Bread: +1.7% (+0.036 pp).
- Food in restaurants/cafés: +0.8% (+0.044 pp).
- Intercity bus: +12.8% (+0.033 pp).
- Beef: -2.3% (-0.052 pp).
- International airfares: -9.4% (-0.049 pp).
What to watch going forward
While September inflation tracked broadly in line with expectations, the breakdown shows food pressures —partly seasonal— and only limited relief from telecommunications and international airfares. If food price increases persist, they could set a floor for year-end inflation; at the same time, softness in energy and some services should help contain the headline index.