Original article: Encuesta La Cosa Nostra: Jara lidera la carrera presidencial, mientras Matthei y Kaiser empatan en segundo lugar
The latest La Cosa Nostra (LCN) poll conducted by sociologist and analyst Alberto Mayol shows Jeanette Jara as the clear frontrunner in the electoral projections.
The survey, reflecting opinions gathered from 600 respondents in the second half of October 2025, demonstrates Jara’s strong lead in the first round of voting with 33.5% of preferences.
This result positions the former Minister of Labor and Social Security in President Gabriel Boric’s administration significantly ahead of her rivals, solidifying her position for a potential runoff.
According to the poll, Jara surpasses her closest competitor by more than 14 percentage points. Nevertheless, the spotlight is on the intense competition within the right-wing factions, where a virtual «technical tie» is emerging between two candidates vying for a spot in the second round.
As it stands, the showdown for the second round remains competitive between Johannes Kaiser of the National Libertarian Party (PNL) and Evelyn Matthei of Chile Vamos, both garnering 19.3%.
Meanwhile, José Antonio Kast, representative of the Republican Party, ranks fourth with 17.7%, illustrating a significant shift in the voting preferences of the right-wing electorate.
It is worth noting that in the previous LCN poll from the first week of October, Kast held the second position with 20.7%, followed by Matthei at 18.3% and Kaiser at 16.7%.
In this new iteration of the opinion study, Franco Parisi from the People’s Party (PDG) holds fifth place with 4.5%, succeeded by Harold Mayne-Nicholls at 4.3%, Marco Enríquez-Ominami at 0.7%, and Eduardo Artés, who shows no intention of voting.
The Bandwagon Effect
In its analysis, La Cosa Nostra discusses the aspect of strategic voting, emphasizing how the perception of «who is winning» can influence voter decisions.
Quoting theories from authors like Anthony Downs and Gary Cox, the report states that voters tend to favor options perceived to have a higher chance of success, avoiding support for candidates seen as lacking real opportunities. This phenomenon, known as the «bandwagon effect,» can bolster candidates who successfully project an image of leadership and viability.
«From this perspective, polls not only depict existing preferences but also actively shape them, generating expectations, narratives, and perceptions of viability. This phenomenon, recognized in literature as the ‘bandwagon effect’ (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet, 1944; Bartels, 1988), can lead to tangible changes in voting intention, benefiting candidates viewed as favorites while undermining those seen as lacking real chances,» the opinion study stated.
You can access the La Cosa Nostra poll from the second half of October below: